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Ref : https://thaicables.wordpre
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AMBASSADOR ENGAGES THAKSIN'S SISTER AND ADVISER ON UPCOMING
RED SHIRT PROTESTS, POLITICAL PROSPECTS
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SIPDIS
STATE FOR EAP/MLS, NSC FOR WALTON
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/2019
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, TH
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR ENGAGES THAKSIN,S SISTER AND ADVISER ON
UPCOMING RED SHIRT PROTESTS, POLITICAL PROSPECTS
REF: A. BANGKOK 2931 THAI POLITICAL ROUNDUP
B. BANGKOK 2875 THAKSIN STICKS FOOT IN MOUTH
C. BANGKOK 2644 AMBASSADOR MEETS CHAVALIT
D. BANGKOK 2402 AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH OPPOSITION
BANGKOK 00003003 001.2 OF 003
Classified By: AMBASSADOR ERIC G. JOHN, REASON: 1.4 (B) AND (D).
SUMMARY
-------
1. (C) On November 23, the Ambassador met with fugitive
former PM Thaksin\'s sister Yingluck Shinawatra and former
Foreign Minister Noppadon Pattama, key unofficial figures
within the opposition Puea Thai party leadership. The
Ambassador underscored U.S. concerns about the potential for
unrest during upcoming red-shirt rallies and urged Yingluck
and Noppadon to prevail upon Thaksin to disavow the use of
violence entirely. Yingluck and Noppadon bemoaned the
judicial double standards they said applied to Thaksin
supporters, and expressed an interest in reconciliation talks
led by a neutral third party, though both struggled to
identify any suitable candidate for such a role. Noppadon
told the Ambassador he did not think the next round of
protests would lead to the dissolution of Parliament, and he
conceded the government would likely remain in power for the
foreseeable future. Neither Yingluck nor Noppadon believed
Thaksin\'s trip to Cambodia or Times interview would prove
damaging in the long term (REF B), and both were dismissive
of the idea that new Puea Thai Chair General Chavalit would
serve as Prime Minister in the event Puea Thai was able to
form the next government.
2. (C) Comment: Both Yingluck and Noppadon came across as
less confident about Puea Thai\'s short to medium term
prospects than in recent meetings (REF D). We were struck by
the fact that they seemed resigned to the likelihood that
Puea Thai would remain in the political wilderness in the
short-medium term. With no obvious trigger on the horizon
for the next round of elections and PM Abhisit and the
Democrats seemingly holding all the cards for now, Puea Thai
and the red-shirts appear to be struggling to identify a
viable path forward.
3. (C) Comment, continued: Yingluck appeared far more poised
during this meeting than she has been in the past. She spoke
with confidence about Puea Thai party operations, strategy
and goals, and deferred less to Noppadon, who has accompanied
her to all of our sessions with her. While it was obvious
that politics does not come as naturally to Yingluck as it
does to her brother, one suspects she may well have a bright
future with the party. As they departed the Residence,
Noppadon quipped: \"You just shook hands with Thailand\'s next
Prime Minister\" (i.e., Yingluck). End Summary and Comment.
RED RALLIES, AND A CAUTION AGAINST VIOLENCE
--------------------------
4. (C) The Ambassador hosted Puea Thai notables Yingluck and
Noppadon for tea at the Residence November 23 as part of our
ongoing outreach to red-shirt movement leaders, Puea Thai
notables, and those in Thaksin\'s inner circle to urge them to
avoid violence in their upcoming round of planned red shirt
protests (initially scheduled to begin November 28, but may
now be postponed). The Ambassador noted that, tactically
speaking, Thaksin and the red shirts had an opportunity to
seize the moral high ground by renouncing violence and
distancing themselves from some of the more extreme red
rhetoric that had emerged in recent days, such as a Chiang
Mai red-shirt leader who used his community radio program
November 19 to threaten PM Abhisit\'s life. Yingluck and
Noppadon took the Ambassador\'s point and stressed that the
red shirts learned their lesson last April and had disavowed
the use of violence.
BANGKOK 00003003 002.2 OF 003
5. (C) Noppadon told the Ambassador that while he was not
worried about red shirts initiating violence in the coming
weeks, he feared the government would attack the red shirts
and provoke a confrontation. The government had no
compunction about carrying out acts of violence against
Thaksin and his supporters, he claimed, as evidenced by the
fact that Thaksin had already survived repeated alleged
planned car bomb attacks (Note: the best-known of the alleged
plots was attributed to ex deputy ISOC GEN Panlop, who joined
Thaksin\'s camp about a year ago).
STACKING THE DECK AGAINST THAKSIN?
--------------------------
6. (C) Turning to the subject of the long running feud
between Thaksin and the current government, both Yingluck and
Noppadon outlined for the Ambassador a list of grievances and
injustices they believed Thaksin and his supporters had
suffered over the course of the last few years. Yingluck
argued that Thaksin and his allies had long been handicapped
by a system of double standards. For example, the yellow
shirts shut down airports with impunity on one hand, while
the government suppressed red shirts protests with repeated
use of the Internal Security Act (ISA) on the other.
7. (C) Noppadon alleged the judicial system was also skewed
against Thaksin and his supporters, as evidenced by the fact
that former PM Samak Sundarvej had been jettisoned as Prime
Minister for a minor conflict of interest transgression
related to his role as the host of a cooking show. Noppadon
told the Ambassador that Thaksin and Puea Thai were the true
champions of democracy in Thailand, while Abhisit and the
Democrats were simply interested in maintaining power.
RECONCILIATION PROSPECTS
------------------------
8. (C) When the Ambassador asked about the prospects for a
reconciliation between Thaksin and the government, both
Yingluck and Noppadon noted that presently both sides were
deeply dug in. In order for there to be a dialogue, a
neutral third party with sufficient stature to bring both
sides to the negotiating table and who enjoyed the respect of
both sides would have to emerge and initiate talks. When the
Ambassador asked whether they could name any individuals who
might be able to fit that bill, both Yingluck and Noppadon
conceded that they could not.
9. (C) When the Ambassador asked Yingluck and Noppadon
whether any members of the royal family would be able to play
a mediating role, they demurred, clearly aware of the perils
of commenting on the matter. In response to a question about
the Privy Council, Noppadon told the Ambassador that normally
the Privy Council Chair would be the obvious candidate to
play the role of mediator, but with GEN Prem Tinsulanonda as
Privy Council Chair, that was obviously not a viable option.
10. (C) Yingluck claimed that Thaksin was not a stubborn
person; he was simply interested in dialogue, and as a true
businessman, he just wanted the government to \"make him a
deal.\" Noppadon added that the RTG had seized 78 billion
baht from Thaksin, despite the fact that when he had entered
office he had already been worth over 45 billion baht.
Thaksin simply wanted the government to come to the
negotiating table and be even handed (Note: Thaksin\'s assets
forfeiture trial is winding up, with the last witness to
testify November 26, and a verdict expected in early January).
PUEA THAI AND ELECTIONS
-----------------------
11. (C) Turning to the subject of Puea Thai\'s future, the
Ambassador asked Yingluck and Noppadon whether they believed
there would be new elections at any point in the near term.
Noppadon told the Ambassador that he believed elections were
BANGKOK 00003003 003.2 OF 003
\"possible but not probable.\" Noting that Abhisit and the
Democrats were enjoying the spoils of political power after a
long time out of office, Noppadon claimed that they had no
real incentive to dissolve Parliament any time soon, and as a
result, he did not anticipate they would choose to do so
unless their hand was forced.
12. (C) When pressed for possible scenarios that could lead
to the dissolution of Parliament, Noppadon suggested that a
no-confidence debate expected in February might be one
possible trigger. Puea Thai had abandoned its earlier effort
to adjust the current Constitution, however, removing one
realistic path to new elections. He defended the abandonment
of the amendment process, claiming it had become increasingly
obvious to Puea Thai that the 1997 Constitution -- not the
2006 version -- should be the baseline for reformation
discussions.
13. (C) Though the party would likely remain in the
opposition in the near term, Yingluck characterized the mood
within the party as optimistic and energetic, particularly in
the north and northeast. When the Ambassador asked about the
political impact of Thaksin\'s recent visit to Cambodia and
his interview with the (London) Times online, both Yingluck
and Noppadon downplayed their significance. Yingluck told
the Ambassador that Thaksin\'s trip to Cambodia was simply the
product of an interest on his part in helping the Cambodian
people, while Noppadon claimed Thaksin\'s Times interview had
been distorted. Neither Yingluck nor Noppadon believed that
the issues would prove to have any serious long term
political implications for Thaksin or the party.
GENERAL CHAVALIT AND FUTURE PUEA THAI LEADERSHIP
--------------------------
14. (C) On the subject of Puea Thai party Chairman Chavalit
Yongchaiyudh, the Ambassador asked Yingluck and Noppadon
whether he would become the Prime Minister in the event of a
Puea Thai victory in the next round of elections. Both
Yingluck and Noppadon replied dismissively, adding that while
it would be \"up to the people,\" Chavalit would not be the
party\'s choice as PM. Chavalit was not involved in the
day-to-day details of Puea Thai party operations either,
Noppadon added, noting that at the age of 77, Chavalit was
more of a big picture strategic thinker for the party than
anything else.
15. (C) Contrasting Chavalit unfavorably with Thaksin\'s
management of Puea Thai\'s original precursor party Thai Rak
Thai, Yingluck pointed out that Thaksin had managed the party
from top to bottom and overseen every detail. Chavalit was
much older than Thaksin had been then, and could not be
expected to reprise the role Thaksin had once played.
According to Yingluck, the future political leadership of
Puea Thai remained in flux. Someone could easily emerge
relatively late in the game to take the reins of the party
and serve as the next Prime Minister, and this as yet
unidentified figure would likely have strong economic
credentials.
JOHN
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